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IN nine weeks when Patrick Dangerfield polls the most votes on Brownlow Medal night, the AFL will be embarrassed.
The preceding words were written by Mark Robinson in the Herald-Sun in the wake of the one week suspension of Patrick Dangerfield. They are words of a remarkable surety, indeed. According to Robinson an award that still has four weeks of votes left to collate has been run and won and the player with the most votes can't win it. Poppycock, balderdash and twaddle, I say. Not only is it absurd to assume that Dangerfield, who only has three more chances to poll votes, will pass likely leader Dustin Martin by year's end, to assume he's already in front ignores all evidence to the contrary. |
For the past few weeks I've been taking the the leaderboards of various media player of the year awards and synthesising them into what the Brownlow count might look like at this stage. What the process lacks in scientific or mathematical integrity it more than makes up for in procrastinatory delight. Essentially it takes the votes from the Herald-Sun, The Age, Triple M, 3AW, SEN, The Footy Gospel, the AFL Coaches Association and Inside Footy's Player Ratings and averages them out to something resembling a 3-2-1 system.
Six of those awards (H-S, 3AW, MMM, SEN, AFLCA and our own) have one thing in common: Richmond's Dustin Martin is leading and, in all but the AFLCA award, has the equivalent of a two game gap on Dangerfield. Media awards don't always correspond with the eventual Brownlow winner but when there's a consensus like that chances are the umpires are noticing the same things when casting their own votes.
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Using my method, Martin is not only leading, he has already racked up 30 votes. When Dangerfield polled a record 35 votes last year he was sitting on 28 after round 19. When Dane Swan polled 34 in 2011 he only had 24 at the same point. In the last two weeks alone Martin is likely to have polled at least five votes, while Dangerfield would poll votes only on reputation over performance. Also working against Dangerfield may be the three game losing streak Geelong went through earlier in the season. While Richmond also lost games at the same time, they were all by less than a goal so Martin could be a chance for votes, while Dangerfield would have to be Geelong's best player in those games to do the same. Honestly, whether Dangerfield was eligible or not, it's hard to see anyone other than Martin winning it. |
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So why all the hand wringing? All the bemoaning of the death of the tackle? All the talk of changing the criteria of an award that has held the place of the game's most prestigious for almost 100 years? Players have missed out on Brownlows due to suspension before. Players have been suspended at the same time as being a Brownlow fancy before. We only need to look back to 2014 and Nat Fyfe for that. The football world finds the strength to go on and life recommences where we all left off. No one thinks Chris Grant any less of a champion because he wasn't able to win a Brownlow and his actions on the field that led to his suspension most certainly didn't bring to an end the attempted spoil.
The long and short of it is Danger can't win it, he most likely wouldn't have even if eligible and everyone needs to get over it. If nothing else, WHEN Dustin Martin is announced as the winner there need be no awkwardness on stage when Patrick Dangerfield presents his medal.
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