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We are but one full round into the AFL season and already there are some supporters seemingly getting ahead of themselves. A section of GWS supporters took to social media to bemoan their failed season following their loss to Melbourne. Some Western Bulldogs supporters were hoping West Coast didn't beat Brisbane by too much, so as to guarantee their side would finish the round in top spot. |
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The inevitable response to such reactions is "Don't get too excited/too worried, it's only Round One." It's a six month season, every team has another 21 games to play before finals and many things could happen between now and September. "It's only Round One" seems a totally logical statement. Is it justifiable though? If a team loses in Round One, thus starting the year outside the top eight, what chance do they actually have of finishing the year playing finals?
In the 22 seasons that the AFL has had a top eight, there have been 184 teams in total go into Round Two below eighth spot. Of those 184, 68 have managed to finish the season with a finals campaign. That is a percentage of slightly under 37. On average over this span of time, there has been three teams outside the eight after Round One that managed to finish the year in the eight.
So, GWS fans concerned that their team had blown a finals chance with their capitulation last week aren't too far off the mark, but what of Dogs fans? Does their team sitting on top of the ladder after one week mean anything for their finals chances? The answer is yes. Since 1994, teams that have finished Round One in top spot have missed the finals only three times. that translates to an 86% chance of Footscray playing finals in 2016.
Of course, hope is not lost for teams not currently in the top eight, especially considering perennial finalists Hawthorn and Fremantle are sitting 14th and 18th respectively. Recent history tells us at least two teams, and perhaps as many as five, will make it into the eight by the end of the year but that also means that for as many as eight teams the season is already over.
For the 10 teams not in the eight after Round One, they can find solace in North Melbourne's anomalous record. Their most recent premiership year, 1999, was one of only six times in the last 22 years that the eventual premier lost in Round One. Not only that but in every one of the last five years that the Roos have played finals, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014 and 2015, they have lost their first game. If history is a reliable guide, North winning their Round One game against Adelaide means they WON'T play finals this year. Not to worry, though, it is only Round One.
In the 22 seasons that the AFL has had a top eight, there have been 184 teams in total go into Round Two below eighth spot. Of those 184, 68 have managed to finish the season with a finals campaign. That is a percentage of slightly under 37. On average over this span of time, there has been three teams outside the eight after Round One that managed to finish the year in the eight.
So, GWS fans concerned that their team had blown a finals chance with their capitulation last week aren't too far off the mark, but what of Dogs fans? Does their team sitting on top of the ladder after one week mean anything for their finals chances? The answer is yes. Since 1994, teams that have finished Round One in top spot have missed the finals only three times. that translates to an 86% chance of Footscray playing finals in 2016.
Of course, hope is not lost for teams not currently in the top eight, especially considering perennial finalists Hawthorn and Fremantle are sitting 14th and 18th respectively. Recent history tells us at least two teams, and perhaps as many as five, will make it into the eight by the end of the year but that also means that for as many as eight teams the season is already over.
For the 10 teams not in the eight after Round One, they can find solace in North Melbourne's anomalous record. Their most recent premiership year, 1999, was one of only six times in the last 22 years that the eventual premier lost in Round One. Not only that but in every one of the last five years that the Roos have played finals, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2014 and 2015, they have lost their first game. If history is a reliable guide, North winning their Round One game against Adelaide means they WON'T play finals this year. Not to worry, though, it is only Round One.
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