Striking Distance

All eyes of AFLW fans will be trained on one particular game this week, the top of the ladder clash between Adelaide and Brisbane on Saturday evening. One group that may be paying extra attention is not a group of fans, but the players and staff of Melbourne Football Club.

​As the Crows and Lions have been grabbing the headlines by taking all before them, the Dees have slightly more quietly put themselves in a nice position as well. With only one loss against their name for the season, they are within striking distance of the top two. Should they win their game against GWS on Friday in Blacktown, they will be equal on points with whichever team loses on Saturday night.

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​What's remarkable about the rise of Melbourne is the unexpectedness of it. They started the season in very underwhelming fashion against Brisbane, when they could only manage a total of 10 points for the game. At halftime in their Round 2 game against Collingwood they trailed by 19 points, only one goal on the board, and it looked as though they were in for a very long season.

One would love to know what was said to the team by their coach, Mick Stinear, during the long break that night. Whatever it was flicked a switch in this group that hasn't been turned off since. They came out in the third quarter and kicked five unanswered goals, still the most for a quarter of footy this season. Then they kicked another two in the last, while keeping the Pies scoreless for the whole second half.

​That halftime break was a definitive turning point. In the six quarters played before that, the Demons had scored an average of less than three points, the lowest in the competition. In the 10 quarters since that time they have scored an average of just over 12, comfortably the most of any team.

The end result of their game against Carlton last week looked close on the scoreboard, but the stats tell a slightly different story. Melbourne finished with almost 100 more disposals than the Blues, with five of their players getting more than 15 touches to Carlton's zero. The dominant Daisy Pearce managed 29 of her own, a competition record this season. 

Despite having more of the ball, they also laid 15 more tackles than Carlton. That pressure was present in their defensive half as well, where they allowed more inside 50s than they gained themselves, but rebounded 22 of them compared to the Blues' 15.

According to Champion Data, Melbourne players feature in the top five of almost every major statistical category. From ranking points to disposals, contested possessions to metres gained, inside 50s to score assists, there will be at least one of Pearce, Karen Paxman or Elise O'Dea. Many categories feature two of them. When it comes to disposals and effective disposals all three of those players are ranked in the top five.

Source: Champion Data on Twitter. Click the image to expand.

While Melbourne's loss to Brisbane in Round 1 put them behind the 8-ball, a win this week puts them back in front of it, and against GWS they will go in as strong favourites. The outcome that would be most advantageous to their chances of a grand final spot is for Brisbane to take care of Adelaide on Saturday night. If those two results eventuate the Crows and Dees will meet in Darwin in Round 6 on equal points with their destinies in their own hands. On the other hand, if Brisbane were to lose to Adelaide, Melbourne would have to rely on making up the sizeable gap in percentage to claim a top two spot, even if they did manage to beat the Crows the following week.

Obviously as a professional sporting organisation like Melbourne won't be concentrating on anything other than what's within their control. You can't help but feel that they'll be watching along with the rest of us on Saturday night with very keen interest.